The Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) recently released two major data releases: the July-September 2025 statistics for statutory homelessness in England and the rough sleeping snapshot in England for autumn 2025. Together, these publications offer a clear picture of homelessness pressures across the country. They also reveal a system that remains stretched at every stage, from prevention to crisis to temporary accommodation. I’ve pulled out three key takeaways.

1. Rough sleeping is at a record high - but growth has slowed

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The rough sleeping count has reached a record high of 4,793 individuals across England counted or estimated to be sleeping rough on a single night in autumn. This is the highest figure since the count began in 2010 and surpasses the previous peak of 4,751 recorded in 2017. Taken on its own, this headline is sobering, and rightly so. Many organisations have responded by emphasising the scale of the crisis and the urgent need for action. It is also important to acknowledge that the snapshot is widely understood to be an underestimate; by design, it primarily captures people sleeping or bedding down who are visible in public spaces on a single night, meaning many people experiencing rough sleeping will not be counted at all. I have previously written about why the autumn count systematically underrepresents women rough sleeping.

While acknowledging that people at the sharpest, most extreme end of homelessness need services to do better, the report also contains some cautious grounds for optimism.

The number of people recorded sleeping rough increased by 3% compared with last year. Any increase is, of course, concerning. However, this follows much steeper rises in previous years, including a 20% increase from 2023 to 2024, a 27% increase from 2022 to 2023, and a 26% increase from 2021 to 2022. A shift from annual increases of around a quarter to just 3% in a single year is significant. The situation is still worsening, but at a far slower pace. Even allowing for the fact that the snapshot undercounts, it remains a useful indicator of national trends. On that measure, the sharp upward trajectory seen since the pandemic appears to be flattening. 

Local patterns reinforce this picture. In 40% of local authorities, the number of people recorded sleeping rough actually fell from last year. Notably, this includes London, where there was a decrease of 41 individuals from last year, representing a 3% decline. While this is a relatively small decline in absolute numbers, given that more than a quarter (27%) of all people recorded sleeping rough in England are in London, even a modest fall of 41 people in the capital carries weight in the national picture.  A reduction in the capital is therefore particularly significant in shaping the national picture. Regional decreases were also seen in Yorkshire and the Humber (-15%) and the East Midlands (-2%). While 10% of local authorities saw no change and half of areas did see increases, the overall pattern is far from uniform growth. 

None of this diminishes the seriousness of the record high figure. But it does suggest that the story is not simply one of accelerating crisis. It is also a story about momentum slowing, uneven progress across the country, and the possibility that post COVID growth is beginning to plateau.

2. Demand for statutory services remains high 

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Between July and September 2025, local authorities carried out 89,530 initial assessments, 24% more than in the same period in 2020. Of these assessments, 36,380 households (41%) were owed a prevention duty and 44,970 (50%) a relief duty. Single adults continue to dominate the caseload. Single men account for 32% of prevention cases and 47% of relief cases, while single mothers form the next largest group at 22% and 16% respectively. The largest age group remains those aged 25 to 34, who make up 28% of households owed duties

The underlying causes of homelessness remain largely consistent, with one notable change. The end of an assured shorthold tenancy is still the leading trigger for prevention support, accounting for 34% of cases (12,330 households). However, this has fallen 16% compared with last year - which could indicate more households being able to retain secure tenancies even before the Renters Rights Act comes into force later in May. For households already experiencing homelessness and therefore owed a relief duty, being unable to stay with family or friends due to relationship breakdown is the most common reason, affecting 29% of cases (13,250 households), followed by domestic abuse at 18% (7,920 households).

One area of rapid change is the growing number of households seeking support after being required to leave Home Office asylum support. While these cases make up only 5% and 6% respectively of prevention and relief duties, the rate of increase has been startling. Prevention cases in this category more than doubled, from 620 to 1,690 over the past year, while relief cases increased from 2,010 to 2,620, up 30% year on year and more than tenfold since 2020. 

Taken together, these figures suggest that statutory demand is not easing and that the structural drivers of homelessness remain largely unchanged, with new pressures emerging alongside longstanding ones.

3. There is record use of temporary accommodation, with regional disparities in type of provision

Temporary accommodation (TA) tells a different but equally concerning story. While the rough sleeping count captures the most visible end of homelessness, TA reflects the scale of pressure inside the system. By the end of September 2025, 134,760 households were living in temporary accommodation across England. This represents a 7% increase compared with the same period last year and 36% more than in 2020. There are now 5.48 households in temporary accommodation for every 1,000 households nationally. Most of these households are families. Nearly two thirds include dependent children, amounting to 175,990 children living in TA. For a growing number of children, homelessness is not a short term crisis but an ongoing living situation.

London dominates the national picture in terms of TA. A total of 75,800 households in temporary accommodation are in the capital, accounting for 56% of the national total, with a rate of 20.56 per 1,000 households, nearly four times the national average. However, the fastest proportional growth has occurred outside London. Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands have seen increases of 67% and 61% respectively over the past five years, even if starting from lower baselines, while London and the South West have grown more slowly at 32% and 28%. Every region is now at or near its highest recorded rate. 

There has also been a shift in the type of accommodation being used, with notable regional disparities. It’s important to understand the benefits and drawbacks of different forms of TA and how they’re used regionally - as experiences in TA are not uniform. 

Nightly paid self contained accommodation, often the most expensive form of TA provision, is now the single largest category of TA, accounting for 38% of placements (50,700 households). This growth is particularly concentrated in London and the South East, where nightly paid accommodation now makes up 46% and 40% of placements respectively.

At the same time, the use of bed and breakfast accommodation has declined. The number of households in B&B fell from 17,620 to 13,930 over the past year, a 21% decline. This is a positive development given longstanding concerns about suitability, particularly for families with children. However, B&B use itself is far from evenly distributed. B&B use is highest in Yorkshire and the Humber and the South West, where it still accounts for 25% of placements, followed by the East Midlands at 21%. 

There is no single national model of temporary accommodation, only a patchwork shaped by local housing markets, supply constraints, and available stock.

A system containing pressure, not resolving it

These figures suggest a system that is not absorbing pressure so much as containing it. Temporary accommodation has become the holding space for a growing number of households who cannot access stable housing but are not sleeping rough. The result is record numbers, longer stays, and increasing reliance on expensive and often disruptive forms of provision.

The crisis has not abated but the trajectory may be changing - and that nuance matters. 

• Emily-Rae Forman is a Data and Evidence Lead at the Centre for Homelessness Impact

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